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Patrick's Property Politics

Jeremiah was a Bullfrog (Joy to the World)

Friday 18th November 2022

By Patrick Bullick

The Autumn Statement was predictably dull.

Presumably Jeremiah was trying lull us all to sleep. He was certainly trying not to wake the sleeping dragon, in the form of ‘the markets’.

The freeze on tax thresholds is like boiling a frog. The frog barely notices but doesn’t fare well in that situation.

We UK taxpayers are the frog.

I couldn’t resist using this 1970’s classic to cheer you up. Though Jeremiah is no ‘friend of mine’…

Huge opportunities to raise more taxes from property transactions have been missed by the Treasury – again!

The Tories simply don’t seem to understand that transaction taxes like, VAT, CGT and Stamp Duty inhibit fluidity and lessen the tax take. They need to adopt the mantra ‘reduce the tax rate - to increase the tax take’.

The statement was particularly short on measures to grow the economy. It seems Jeremiah and his friend ‘Recession Rishi’ prefer to drive us into negative growth, with all the job losses and difficulty for businesses that creates. All to close a completely hypothetical ‘black hole’ predicted by the Treasury, OBR and Bank of England – none known for their accurate forecasts.

Anyway, in the circumstances, interest rates are already easing, so mortgages will not be as expensive as predicted just a few weeks ago. Nothing to do with our Government, energy costs will come down and in turn inflation.

The question people keep asking me is – ‘Will London property prices come down?

My answer is ‘If they do - not by much’. We have net immigration of over half a million people last year and consistently at least 250,000 per annum most of whom wish to be in the prosperous South East, and this Govt. (like them all) seem incapable of building to meet that demand.

Uncertainty in equity and bond markets plus gold flagging because it does not yield, brings to mind the old expression ‘Safe as Houses’.

Am I wrong? Happy to hear your views….

Until next time.

PB

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